Friday, April 17, 2020

SUSTAINABILITY OF INDIAN ECONOMY POST LOCK DOWN (CORONA PANDEMIC)- Positive but Realistic GS view


INTRODUCTION:
The novel corona virus disease (hereinafter referred as “Covid-19”), which has been declared as pandemic by Word Health Organisation, forced the government to declare Lock Down all over the country and accordingly, this has completely stopped the business and professional activities causing extensive slowdown of Indian Economy.

BACKGROUND
India is fifth largest economy of the world. The GDP of India for the year 2018-19 was $ 2.719 trillion with the growth rate of 6.8%. The GDP growth rate for the financial year 2020-21, as per economic survey, was expected to be in the range of 6.00% to 6.50%, wherein the government has estimated nominal growth of GDP for 2020-21 at 10%. Yong and Growing Population is its strength.
If we look at Pre-Covid19 situation of Indian economy, the problem of NBFCs that started with ILFS was creating the fear for entire economy. Bank was facing problems due to increasing bad loans, and it affected its lending ability. There was significant reduction of private investment and new business by companies. Though RBI had taken various measures, but few bankers have given the benefits to consumers. The auto sector was going through short term recession, reason of BS-IV and condition of third party insurance for five years cannot be ruled out, as there was a less demand for vehicles, and accordingly, the companies were doing laid off and suspended production for some time. Further, this is also a matter of fact and record that last Year, 2019, was a difficult year for the global economy with world output growth growing at its slowest pace of 2.9% since the global financial crisis in 2009. A weak environment for global manufacturing, trade, and demand adversely impacted the Indian economy. Covid-19 has already impacted the global economy for this year too, and its affect, in the present globalization, to the Indian economy is obvious. But, being an optimistic person, I can see lot of opportunity for the growth of Indian Economy post Covid-19 lock down. Past performance is not necessarily a good predictor of future performance.

MEASURES:
There is an urgent need of specific clarification regarding the clear future road map to revive the economy affected due to Covid-19 lock down. We have seen in the Past that that financial markets, private investment, inflation and overall economic activity were negatively impacted by heightened uncertainty.
Work is required to be done, with the team of experts from different industries, by taking, sector wise, both short term measures and long term measures, wherein short term measures will allow the economy to resume its operations effectively, and long term measures will ensure growth in economy.
Agriculture sector has the potential to support the economy even during this Covid-19 period as it may not be substantially affected by this lock down. There is a need to take the specific measures to save the present crop and provide the required assistance for crop rotation. Proper mechanisms for Fair Price to farmers, investment on infrastructure, availability of internet facility for use of information technology and adequate warehousing arrangement are required to be made. These measures may also assist the commitment of government towards doubling farmers’ incomes by 2022, and may help in generating employment.
Incident, during Covid-19 Lock Down, of people migrating back to their villages shows that separation of people’s natural habitat may produce income but not happiness. We can learn from the “Work from Home” concept adopted during Covid-19 Lock Down, and can make proper infrastructure for “Work from Village”. Encouragement to Non-farming activities will not only reduce the problem of urban migration but will also generate employment. This will also increase the consumption level of rural India and accordingly open the ways for fresh investment.
Corporate Bonds worth approximately Rs. 92,000/- Crore and commercial papers worth around Rs. 78,000/- Crore are coming up for repayments towards the end of May. Attention of India Inc. is required for proper management of same as it will have impact on the confidence of investor on Indian economy and strengthening trust in the market.
Effective Use of technology may reduce the government expenses thereby support the government to manage Fiscal Deficit. Reducing the public holidays for remaining part of the year will enhance working hours. Relaxations on laws and tax benefit may support the sectors like hotels and restaurant, tours and travels, transport, construction and automobiles, and it may also reduce lay off thereby help the government to effectively deal with unemployment.
Economic activities are affected by the pendency in the legal system. Immediate attentions are required for appointment of judges and making the proper infrastructure and atmosphere for virtual courts. Special Courts are required to be notified immediately to resolve, on time-bound basis, the disputes/matters arise due to Covid-19.
The Word’s Dependency on India for “hydroxychloroquine” during Covid-19 shows India’s potential on Health Sector. Health sector has the potential to support the Indian economy for its sustainability and it can also play vital role for the growth of Indian Economy. It can help in generating foreign exchange and employment. Proper Investment and more focus on innovation capabilities and knowledge revolution can be value added to the Indian Economy, and it can also play very important role towards the steps of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2025.

CONCLUSION:
India is Rising Economic Power, and there will be no problem for sustainability of Indian Economy post Covid-19 Lock Down on taking the prompt adequate action in proper manner.

-THANK YOU-
Sources:
1.      The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
2.      Economic Survey
3.      Union Budget of India
4.      World Bank
5.      Live Mint
6.      Financial express

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